Voyage Estimates That Hold Up Against Actual Voyage Results
Build voyage estimates with shared assumptions and a post-voyage comparison so your fixing decisions rest on numbers that hold up.
This is for chartering managers, commercial heads and owners of tonnage who fix vessels on the strength of a voyage estimate. When the estimate is optimistic, you discover it weeks later in the voyage result, after the cargo is lifted and the decision cannot be undone. Repeated small misses decide whether a fleet earns or bleeds. This post shows how to build estimates on shared, maintained assumptions and how to close the loop with a simple post-voyage comparison your team can run every time.
A broker offers a cargo with a tight laycan. The chartering desk opens last month's spreadsheet, overwrites the ports, guesses canal and port costs from memory and uses the vessel's description speed and consumption. The time charter equivalent looks attractive, the owner approves, and the vessel is fixed within the hour.
Two months later the voyage closes. Waiting time at the load port was longer than assumed, the vessel burned more fuel at sea than the description, and port charges were higher than the remembered figure. Nobody compares the result with the estimate because the desk is busy fixing the next cargo, so the same assumptions go into the next estimate.
A mid-sized supramax operator in Mumbai fixed most cargoes from individual spreadsheets. Results often fell short of estimates and nobody could explain why. The commercial head set up a shared assumptions library, asked operations to refresh speed and consumption from noon reports, and introduced a simple estimate-versus-actual sheet for every closed voyage. The first reviews showed a consistent pattern: waiting days at two discharge ports were routinely underestimated, and one older vessel never achieved its description speed. Both were corrected in the library. Over the following quarters, estimates became more conservative and more believable, owners trusted the desk's recommendations, and the team stopped chasing cargoes that only looked profitable on paper.
What is the difference between a voyage estimate and a voyage result?
The estimate is the forecast made before fixing, using assumed days, bunkers, port costs and freight. The voyage result is the actual outcome once all accounts are settled. Comparing the two shows which assumptions need correcting.
How do I calculate TCE for a voyage charter?
Take gross freight and other income, subtract voyage costs such as bunkers, port charges, canal dues and commissions, then divide by total voyage days including ballast and port time. The result is comparable with time charter hire rates.
Should every estimator use the same spreadsheet?
Yes, or the same tool. Shared formulas and a common assumptions library mean two people estimating the same cargo get similar answers, and differences come from judgement rather than hidden spreadsheet errors.
How often should port cost assumptions be updated?
Update them whenever a new final disbursement account arrives for that port, and review the whole library on a fixed cycle you choose, such as quarterly. Mark any entry older than your threshold as stale.
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